Rwanda After Kagame: A Nation at a Political Crossroads

As Rwanda marks 30 years under President Paul Kagame, a newly released survey reveals a complex blend of skepticism, fear, and cautious hope among Rwandans, especially those in exile, about the country’s political future. The study was conducted amid escalating tensions in the Great Lakes region, increased scrutiny of Kagame’s human rights record, and growing international pressure, including new sanctions by the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Belgium, and Germany over Rwanda’s destabilizing role in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

The Context: A Nation of Progress and Paradox

Rwanda’s post-genocide recovery has drawn global admiration. Under Kagame’s leadership, the country has become a poster child for development in Africa, with impressive statistics in education, health care, technology, and women’s representation in politics (61% of parliamentary seats held by women as of 2023, according to the World Bank).

But behind the impressive façade lies a repressive and authoritarian political system. Human rights organizations like Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and the UN Human Rights Council have documented systemic abuses: enforced disappearances, torture, extrajudicial killings, and zero tolerance for political dissent.

High-profile cases include:

*Victoire Ingabire, a prominent opposition leader who was jailed after attempting to run for president in 2010.

*Patrick Karegeya, former intelligence chief, murdered in 2013 in a Johannesburg hotel.

*Colonel Théoneste Lizinde and Seth Sendashonga, former RPF insiders who were both assassinated in exile in Kenya.

*Kizito Mihigo, gospel singer and peace activist, who died in police custody in 2020 under suspicious circumstances.

*Jean-Damascène Munyeshyaka, a journalist who disappeared in Kigali in 2021 and remains missing.

*Illuminée Iragena, a political activist affiliated with FDU-Inkingi, who went missing in 2016 and is presumed dead.

These examples highlight a pattern of transnational repression and domestic silencing of dissent that has intensified as Kagame consolidates power.

II. International Relations and the DRC Conflict

Rwanda’s role in destabilizing the DRC has once again become a major source of tension. A 2023 UN Group of Experts report confirmed Kigali’s military support for the M23 rebel group, which has committed widespread atrocities including killings, rape, and the displacement of over 1 million civilians in eastern Congo.

As a result, a wave of sanctions has hit Rwanda in the past year:

°The U.S. Treasury Department in late 2024 imposed financial sanctions and travel bans on senior Rwandan military officials for aiding armed groups in the DRC, and recently issued new sanctions against Kagame top General James Kabarebe, who is the current deputy foreign minister of foreign affairs.

°The United Kingdom suspended parts of its security cooperation with Rwanda and warned of further measures if Kigali continues supporting M23.

°Canada placed export restrictions on military and dual-use technologies to Rwanda and sanctioned key figures in the Rwandan Defense Forces.

°Belgium, Rwanda’s former colonial power, froze aid programs and restricted visas for top Rwandan officials, before Rwanda retaliates with ending diplomatic relation with the country.

°Germany halted military training initiatives and conditioned future development assistance on verifiable improvements in human rights.

These sanctions reflect growing consensus among Western democracies that Kagame’s regime is fueling regional instability and committing human rights violations both at home and abroad. Despite this, Kagame has remained defiant, accusing critics of neocolonial bias and hypocrisy.

III. The Survey: Public Opinion on Rwanda’s Political Future

Conducted among Rwandans in the diaspora, the survey sought views on potential transition scenarios. Due to the risks of repression, a parallel survey inside Rwanda was deemed too dangerous. Respondents were asked to weigh the plausibility of several future paths.

Key highlights:

1. Will Kagame Be Replaced by a Family Member? Only 5% believe that Kagame would be succeeded by someone from his family. Despite speculation surrounding his daughter Ange Kagame or other relatives, Rwandans appear to reject dynastic succession, perhaps learning from the examples of Gabon Ali Bongo succeeding Omar Bongo or Togo Faure Gnassingbé following Gnassingbé Eyadéma, where dynasties have stirred resentment and unrest.

2. Could a Military Coup Happen? Just 6% believe that a military general could overthrow Kagame. This may reflect the deep loyalty he has built within the Rwandan Patriotic Army (RPA) and the Department of Military Intelligence (DMI), where defection is rare and heavily punished. The 2010 fallout with Gen Kayumba Nyamwasa who survived an assassination attempt in exile in South Africa remains a stark example.

3. Could External Armed Forces Remove Kagame? Only 2% think a foreign military force could unseat the regime. Given Rwanda’s formidable defense apparatus, including its elite Republican Guard, and Kagame’s role in UN peacekeeping missions, including in the Central African Republic, few believe this scenario is plausible.

4. Could the ICC Prosecute Kagame? 11% believe that Kagame could be arrested by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes or crimes against humanity, especially linked to the DRC conflict. While Kagame has never been formally indicted, calls for ICC involvement have increased following evidence of Rwanda’s support to rebel groups, including in the Mapping Report of 2010, which documented mass atrocities potentially amounting to genocide by Rwandan forces in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and most notably the recent capturing of the major cities of Goma and Bukavu.

5. Could Kagame Flee the Country? Just 1% believe Kagame could seek asylum abroad, leading to national fragmentation. Despite international criticism, Kagame shows no sign of relinquishing power voluntarily and the Rwandan military remains highly centralized under his command.

6. Would Kagame Negotiate With the Opposition? A mere 2% believe Kagame would consider power-sharing through dialogue. The regime’s intolerance for opposition, including the blocking of political parties, harassment of independent journalists, and surveillance of diaspora activists, suggests that such negotiations are viewed as politically impossible under the current administration.

7. Can the External Opposition Be an Alternative? A relatively high 41% believe that opposition in exile , such as platforms like the Rwandan National Congress RNC and FDU Inkingi among others, could offer a credible alternative. This marks a significant departure from fear-based silence and signals rising hopes for political transformation, albeit from outside the country’s borders.

Visual representation: The graph below displays the respondents’ beliefs about different political outcomes clearly reflecting both disillusionment and the rising hope placed in external forces.

IV. Implications and Recommendations

The survey reveals a population grappling with political paralysis but beginning to believe in the possibility of external change. Repression inside Rwanda has dampened the ability to mobilize, but diaspora groups are becoming louder and more organized.

To support a peaceful and democratic future in Rwanda, the international community should:

*Demand independent investigations into political killings and disappearances.

*Enforce and expand targeted sanctions on individuals undermining peace in the DRC and violating human rights in Rwanda.

*Support exiled opposition platforms, offering them legitimacy and protection.

*Promote freedom of the press and the protection of Rwandan journalists and civil society groups.

*Condition foreign aid on measurable improvements in governance and human rights.

V. Final Thought: Change is Inevitable

History teaches us that no regime lasts forever. Rwanda may appear politically stable under Kagame, but the rising dissatisfaction and isolation on the world stage suggest otherwise. As calls for justice grow louder and international sanctions intensify, the political future of Rwanda seems poised for a turning point. Whether change comes from within or abroad, peacefully or through rupture, one thing is clear: Rwanda’s next chapter will be written under vastly different circumstances.

Peace to All.

Axel Kalinijabo

References

1. Human Rights Watch, “Rwanda 2023 Human Rights Report”
2. Amnesty International, “A Decade of Dissent: Human Rights in Kagame’s Rwanda”
3. UN Group of Experts on the DRC, Final Report (2023)
4. European Parliament Resolution on Rwanda’s Role in DRC (Feb 2023)
5. UN Mapping Report on DRC Atrocities (2010)
6. BBC Africa Eye, “Inside the Secret State: Rwanda’s Global Surveillance” (2022)
7. World Bank Gender Statistics (2023)
8. Reuters, “Kagame Critic Assassinated in South Africa” (2014)
9. ICC Rome Statute – Universal Jurisdiction Debates
10. U.S. Treasury Department Sanctions Notice on Rwanda (2024)
11. UK Foreign Office Statement on Rwanda-DRC Conflict (2024)
12. Canada Global Affairs Press Release on Rwanda Sanctions (2024)
13. Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Press Statement (2024)
14. German Bundestag Brief on Rwanda Policy Shift (2024)